| Chinas Economic Future Outlook Essay, Research Paper
China’s Economic Future Outlook
If China’s economy grows as fast for the next 20 years as it has for
the past 14, it will be the biggest economy on earth:
I feel that China’s drastic improvements over the last 14 years are
overwhelming, with their Real GNP growing at a rate of 9% a year, which
means by, 1994, China’s economy will match the performance of countries
like Japan and Taiwan. China’s standard of living has also increased, and
the number of people who were considered absolutely poor decreased
approximately 63%. I feel with the vast amount of people living in China,
and the economic activity booming like it is, China’s exports will continue
to grow, as well as the standard of living. This will create more revenue,
and more capital for them to produce even more goods and become even
larger, prospering as one of the biggest economies on the earth. I also
feel that China should try to overcome its corrupt system and steadily move
into a free enterprise system.
Competition has been the key to China’s success:
I believe that competition has been the key to China’s success. When
Mr. Deng opened the free market, it brought the first signs of the farmers
becoming more rich since the 1950s. His political genius allowed the
farmers to become rich. He also introduced the “open-door policy” which is
proving to be very beneficial, as they follow in the footsteps of their
strong rich neighbours. Mr. Perkins believed four conditions must be met
for a market system to work well in reforming centrally planned economy. I
believe if China continues to improve its productivity, and the number of
monopolies decrease as studies show, China will move into a capitalist
front only to prosper. An Inflationary crisis within two years will test
the government’s reformist mettle:
The 14th Communist Party Congress, set the official seal on the fourth
wave of economic reform. Market Splintering: l feel that China should
allow labour to become freer, because this will allow workers to be better
suited towards their jobs, and therefor they workers will be more
effective. Infrastructure: l believe that China has to build a railway
system, so it will not have the highest utilisation rates for freight
traffic. l also believe that China should give incentives for students to
enter higher education. Government Finance: l think that the government
should stop making up for losses of state-owned firms, and stop paying
subsidies to these firms and consumers, hence the budget gap would be more
than closed.
Why privatisation may not be needed:
Privatisation in many cases may not be needed because the government
supports many businesses and purchases their products. If the company’s are
open to the market, many jobs will be lost. If foreign ownership buys it
up, many jobs will also be lost, as well as many profits and products.
State owned firms are not ready for the market, because they are geared for
the bureaucrats and not customers. They are more concerned with the
welfare of the employees rather than efficiency. In the past, communism
led to low productive workers, because the more profits they made, were
taken from government. Now things have changed, the more the retained
earnings, the more the employees receive in bonuses, and that will make
them work harder.
A bracing wind is blowing through the open door:
China follows the policies of its East Asian neighbours on foreign
trade and investment. In 1978 China had an isolated economy, with a
minimal share of world trade, commodities, especially oil which was China’s
main export. It has now blossomed into a $300 billion trade by 1995.
Exports has five-fold. China will also receive a lot of foreign investment
from countries, especially japan, which will hit poor parts of China.
China will also be joining GATT soon, and have reached an market-opening
agreement with the US in October. I believe that China should allow as
much foreign investment as possible because it has helped other countries
surrounding them, and may help them.
The Communist Party has nowhere to go but down
l partly disagree with this statement, l feel that once a country like
China has accomplished itself economically like it has (strong and
prosperous future), it will take a lot to bring the party down even though
there might be some good reasons to. Also it may be difficult to go down,
because China is still three quarters rural, and the people in the country
still prefer communism because of the small favours received. Another
factor why the party won’t go down is because if it goes, it will be
replaced by the army, the secret police or warlords. Even though the
communist party has not functioned like it was supposed to, it will not go
down. The communist party has been operating very much like capitalist,
because of the capitalist society which has been introduced over the last
several years. The party has a large role to play in China’s transition to
a full market economy.
China is on its way. the West should prepare
China’s interests lay in foreign investment, trade and economic
reform. China’s main driving force was competition, and they proved that
privatisation and settling the matter of ownership are not so critical in
the early stages of reform. In the years ahead, China must choose between
keeping the communist party or kepping the stunning economic growth. If
they continue to grow at the rate China grows, and keep improving their
economy, and join the likes of Japan, they can combine forces in all
aspects against the west, military wise and economically wise. if China’s
economy grows as fast for the next twenty years like it has for the past
fourteen, it will be the biggest economy on earth.
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